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ASTM D8215-18

(Practice)

Standard Practice for Statistical Modeling of Uncertainty in Assessment of In-place Coal Resources

Standard Practice for Statistical Modeling of Uncertainty in Assessment of In-place Coal Resources

SIGNIFICANCE AND USE
5.1 Traditional methods for expressing geological uncertainty consist of preparing reliability categories based simply on the distance between drill hole data points, such as the one described by Wood et al. (5) that uses only the drill holes within the coal bed. A major drawback of distance methods is their weak to null association with estimation errors. This practice provides a methodology for effectively assessing the uncertainty in coal resource estimates utilizing stochastic simulation. In determining uncertainty for any coal assessment, stochastic simulation enables consideration of other important factors and information beyond the geometry of drill hole locations, both in and out of the coal bed, including: non-depositional channels, depth of weathering, complexity of seam boundaries, coal seam subcrop projections, and varying coal bed geology for different seams due to fluctuating peat depositional environments.  
5.2 For multi-seam deposits, uncertainty can be expressed on an individual seam basis as well as an aggregated uncertainty for an entire coal deposit.  
5.3 The uncertainty is expressed directly in tons of coal. Additionally, this practice allows the statistical analysis to be presented according to widely-accepted conventions, such as percentiles and confidence intervals, say, that there is a 90 % probability that the actual tonnage in place is 346 ± 31.7 million tons of coal.  
5.4 The results of an uncertainty determination can provide important input into an overall risk analysis assessing the commercial feasibility of a coal deposit.  
5.5 A company may rank coal resources per block (cell) based on the degree of uncertainty.
SCOPE
1.1 This practice covers a procedure for quantitatively determining in-place tonnage uncertainty in a coal resource assessment. The practice uses a database on coal occurrence and applies geostatistical methods to model the uncertainty associated with a tonnage estimated for one or more coal seams. The practice includes instruction for the preparation of results in graphical form.  
1.2 This document does not include a detailed presentation of the basic theory behind the formulation of the standard, which can be found in numerous publications, with a selection being given in the references (1-3).2  
1.3 This practice should be used in conjunction with professional judgment of the many unique aspects of a coal deposit.  
1.4 This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibility of the user of this standard to establish appropriate safety, health, and environmental practices and determine the applicability of regulatory limitations prior to use.  
1.5 This international standard was developed in accordance with internationally recognized principles on standardization established in the Decision on Principles for the Development of International Standards, Guides and Recommendations issued by the World Trade Organization Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee.

General Information

Status
Historical
Publication Date
31-Oct-2018
ICS
35.240.70 - IT applications in science
73.020 - Mining and quarrying
Technical Committee
D05 - Coal and Coke
Drafting Committee
D05.07 - Physical Characteristics of Coal
Current Stage
Ref Project

Relations

Replaced By
ASTM D8215-19 - Standard Practice for Statistical Modeling of Uncertainty in Assessment of In-place Coal Resources
Effective Date
15-Apr-2019

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ASTM D8215-18 - Standard Practice for Statistical Modeling of Uncertainty in Assessment of In-place Coal Resources
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NOTICE: This standard has either been superseded and replaced by a new version or withdrawn.
Contact ASTM International (www.astm.org) for the latest information
Designation: D8215 − 18
Standard Practice for
Statistical Modeling of Uncertainty in Assessment of In-
1
place Coal Resources
This standard is issued under the fixed designation D8215; the number immediately following the designation indicates the year of
original adoption or, in the case of revision, the year of last revision.Anumber in parentheses indicates the year of last reapproval.A
superscript epsilon (´) indicates an editorial change since the last revision or reapproval.
INTRODUCTION
Assessmentofcoaltonnagein-placeisafundamentalfactorinevaluatingthecommercialfeasibility
ofanydeposit.Equallyimportantisanappraisalofthereliabilitythatcanbeplacedinthedrillingdata
available for an estimation. Traditional methods for quantitatively expressing uncertainty use
reliability categories based simply on the distance between drill-hole data within the boundaries of a
coal bed. A significant limitation of the distance approach is the inability to express uncertainty in
terms of how close a resource estimate is to the true value.
This practice provides a geostatistical methodology to calculate the uncertainty of an in-place, coal
resourceestimate,bothatthedepositandblocklevel.Inadditiontoexaminingthedrillingpatternboth
within and outside the coal bed, other factors influencing the complexity in the geology are also
considered, resulting in realistic estimates of uncertainty. Most importantly, the uncertainty is
expressed directly in tons of coal. Like other coal properties, uncertainty can be used to rank the
resources in classes.
1. Scope 1.5 This international standard was developed in accor-
dance with internationally recognized principles on standard-
1.1 This practice covers a procedure for quantitatively
ization established in the Decision on Principles for the
determining in-place tonnage uncertainty in a coal resource
Development of International Standards, Guides and Recom-
assessment. The practice uses a database on coal occurrence
mendations issued by the World Trade Organization Technical
and applies geostatistical methods to model the uncertainty
Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee.
associated with a tonnage estimated for one or more coal
seams. The practice includes instruction for the preparation of
2. Referenced Documents
results in graphical form.
3
2.1 ASTM Standards:
1.2 This document does not include a detailed presentation
D621Test Methods for Deformation of Plastics Under Load
of the basic theory behind the formulation of the standard,
4
(Withdrawn 1994)
which can be found in numerous publications, with a selection
D653Terminology Relating to Soil, Rock, and Contained
2
being given in the references (1-3).
Fluids
1.3 This practice should be used in conjunction with pro-
D5549Guide for The Contents of Geostatistical Site Inves-
4
fessional judgment of the many unique aspects of a coal
tigation Report (Withdrawn 2002)
deposit.
D5922Guide forAnalysis of Spatial Variation in Geostatis-
tical Site Investigations
1.4 This standard does not purport to address all of the
D5923GuideforSelectionofKrigingMethodsinGeostatis-
safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the
tical Site Investigations
responsibility of the user of this standard to establish appro-
D5924Guide for Selection of Simulation Approaches in
priate safety, health, and environmental practices and deter-
Geostatistical Site Investigations
mine the applicability of regulatory limitations prior to use.
1
This practice is under the jurisdiction of ASTM Committee D05 on Coal and
3
Coke and is the direct responsibility of Subcommittee D05.07 on Physical For referenced ASTM standards, visit the ASTM website, www.astm.org, or
Characteristics of Coal. contact ASTM Customer Service at service@astm.org. For Annual Book of ASTM
Current edition approved Nov. 1, 2018. Published December 2018. DOI: Standards volume information, refer to the standard’s Document Summary page on
10.1520/D8215-18. the ASTM website.
4
2
Theboldfacenumbersinparenthesesrefertothelistofreferencesattheendof The last approved version of this historical standard is referenced on
this standard. www.astm.org.
Copyright © ASTM International, 100 Barr Harbor Drive, PO Box C700, West Conshohocken, PA 19428-2959. United States
1

---------------------- Page: 1 ----------------------
D8215 − 18
5
2.2 ASTM Manuals, Monographs, and Data Series: 3.1.10 kriging, n—agroupofgeostatisticalestimationmeth-
MNL11ManualonDrilling,Sampling,andAnalysisofCoal ods formulated to minimize estimation errors in a minimum
mean square error sense.
3. Terminology
3.1.11 lower quartile, n—in a split of a ranked sample into
3.1 Definitions:
four parts of equal size, the divider between the two partitions
3.1.1 average, n—mean.
below the median. It is synonymous with the 25th percentile.
3.1.2 bin, n—eachofasetoftheadjoiningintervalsusedfo
...

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ASTM D8215-21(Practice)
Standard Practice for Statistical Modeling of Uncertainty in Assessment of In-place Coal Resources

SIGNIFICANCE AND USE
5.1 Traditional methods for expressing geological uncertainty consist of preparing reliability categories based simply on the distance between drill hole data points, such as the one described by Wood et al. (5) that uses only the drill holes within the coal bed. A major drawback of distance methods is their weak to null association with estimation errors. This practice provides a methodology for effectively assessing the uncertainty in coal resource estimates utilizing stochastic simulation. In determining uncertainty for any coal assessment, stochastic simulation enables consideration of other important factors and information beyond the geometry of drill hole locations, both in and out of the coal bed, including: non-depositional channels, depth of weathering, complexity of seam boundaries, coal seam subcrop projections, and varying coal bed geology for different seams due to fluctuating peat depositional environments. Olea et al. (6) explains in detail the methodology behind this practice and illustrates it with an example.  
5.2 For multi-seam deposits, uncertainty can be expressed on an individual seam basis as well as an aggregated uncertainty for an entire coal deposit.  
5.3 The uncertainty is expressed directly in tons of coal. Additionally, this practice allows the statistical analysis to be presented according to widely-accepted conventions, such as percentiles and confidence intervals. For example, there is a 90 % probability that the actual tonnage in place is 314 million metric tons ± 28.8 million metric tons (346 million tons ± 31.7 million tons) of coal.  
5.4 The results of an uncertainty determination can provide important input into an overall risk analysis assessing the commercial feasibility of a coal deposit.  
5.5 A company may rank coal resources per block (cell) based on the degree of uncertainty.
SCOPE
1.1 This practice covers a procedure for quantitatively determining in-place tonnage uncertainty in a coal resource assessment. The practice uses a database on coal occurrence and applies geostatistical methods to model the uncertainty associated with a tonnage estimated for one or more coal seams. The practice includes instruction for the preparation of results in graphical form.  
1.2 This document does not include a detailed presentation of the basic theory behind the formulation of the standard, which can be found in numerous publications, with a selection being given in the references (1-3).2  
1.3 This practice should be used in conjunction with professional judgment of the many unique aspects of a coal deposit.  
1.4 Units—The values stated in SI units are to be regarded as standard. The values given in parentheses after SI units are provided for information only and are not considered standard.
Note 1: All values given in parentheses after SI units are stated in inch-pound units.  
1.5 This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibility of the user of this standard to establish appropriate safety, health, and environmental practices and determine the applicability of regulatory limitations prior to use.  
1.6 This international standard was developed in accordance with internationally recognized principles on standardization established in the Decision on Principles for the Development of International Standards, Guides and Recommendations issued by the World Trade Organization Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee.

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ASTM D8215-21(Practice)
Standard Practice for Statistical Modeling of Uncertainty in Assessment of In-place Coal Resources

SIGNIFICANCE AND USE
5.1 Traditional methods for expressing geological uncertainty consist of preparing reliability categories based simply on the distance between drill hole data points, such as the one described by Wood et al. (5) that uses only the drill holes within the coal bed. A major drawback of distance methods is their weak to null association with estimation errors. This practice provides a methodology for effectively assessing the uncertainty in coal resource estimates utilizing stochastic simulation. In determining uncertainty for any coal assessment, stochastic simulation enables consideration of other important factors and information beyond the geometry of drill hole locations, both in and out of the coal bed, including: non-depositional channels, depth of weathering, complexity of seam boundaries, coal seam subcrop projections, and varying coal bed geology for different seams due to fluctuating peat depositional environments. Olea et al. (6) explains in detail the methodology behind this practice and illustrates it with an example.  
5.2 For multi-seam deposits, uncertainty can be expressed on an individual seam basis as well as an aggregated uncertainty for an entire coal deposit.  
5.3 The uncertainty is expressed directly in tons of coal. Additionally, this practice allows the statistical analysis to be presented according to widely-accepted conventions, such as percentiles and confidence intervals. For example, there is a 90 % probability that the actual tonnage in place is 314 million metric tons ± 28.8 million metric tons (346 million tons ± 31.7 million tons) of coal.  
5.4 The results of an uncertainty determination can provide important input into an overall risk analysis assessing the commercial feasibility of a coal deposit.  
5.5 A company may rank coal resources per block (cell) based on the degree of uncertainty.
SCOPE
1.1 This practice covers a procedure for quantitatively determining in-place tonnage uncertainty in a coal resource assessment. The practice uses a database on coal occurrence and applies geostatistical methods to model the uncertainty associated with a tonnage estimated for one or more coal seams. The practice includes instruction for the preparation of results in graphical form.  
1.2 This document does not include a detailed presentation of the basic theory behind the formulation of the standard, which can be found in numerous publications, with a selection being given in the references (1-3).2  
1.3 This practice should be used in conjunction with professional judgment of the many unique aspects of a coal deposit.  
1.4 Units—The values stated in SI units are to be regarded as standard. The values given in parentheses after SI units are provided for information only and are not considered standard.
Note 1: All values given in parentheses after SI units are stated in inch-pound units.  
1.5 This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibility of the user of this standard to establish appropriate safety, health, and environmental practices and determine the applicability of regulatory limitations prior to use.  
1.6 This international standard was developed in accordance with internationally recognized principles on standardization established in the Decision on Principles for the Development of International Standards, Guides and Recommendations issued by the World Trade Organization Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee.

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